MLB Picks · August 14, 2026

Our model's picks for today's MLB slate. Career accuracy on MLB: 54.9% on 1210 graded games .

10:11 PM UTC

Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds

Our pick

Cincinnati Reds

Model probability

55.5%

Edge vs market

+3.6%

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11:11 PM UTC

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

Our pick

Tampa Bay Rays

Model probability

66.3%

Edge vs market

+6.1%

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11:11 PM UTC

San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians

Our pick

Cleveland Guardians

Model probability

56.5%

Edge vs market

+1.4%

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11:16 PM UTC

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves

Our pick

Atlanta Braves

Model probability

68.5%

Edge vs market

+4.7%

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11:16 PM UTC

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

Our pick

New York Yankees

Model probability

58.6%

Edge vs market

+0.8%

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1:41 AM UTC

Texas Rangers @ Athletics

Our pick

Texas Rangers

Model probability

57.9%

Edge vs market

+7.2%

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2:16 AM UTC

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

Our pick

San Francisco Giants

Model probability

63.6%

Edge vs market

+9.2%

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6:21 PM UTC

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

Our pick

Chicago Cubs

Model probability

64.7%

Edge vs market

+3.2%

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8:06 PM UTC

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

Our pick

San Francisco Giants

Model probability

68.3%

Edge vs market

+6.2%

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10:41 PM UTC

Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds

Our pick

Cincinnati Reds

Model probability

55.2%

Edge vs market

+4.0%

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11:15 PM UTC

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves

Our pick

Atlanta Braves

Model probability

65.0%

Edge vs market

+6.5%

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11:15 PM UTC

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Our pick

Milwaukee Brewers

Model probability

57.2%

Edge vs market

+2.0%

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How our MLB model works

Every game gets 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations combining ELO ratings, team season stats, recent form, and matchup-specific features (starting pitcher for MLB, injury reports across all sports). Output probabilities are Platt-calibrated against the most recent 60 days of graded outcomes. Nothing is manual — the same code that produces today's picks below is what produces tomorrow's.

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