Edge EngineOur track record
Every pick, publicly graded
We track every prediction against real sportsbook lines. Wins, losses and the probability we gave each one are all on the record.
The record, one pick per game
Picks graded
418
Win rate
67.2%
Books expected
69.8%
NCAAF
69.0% won
232 picks · books expected 74.0%
NHL
67.5% won
80 picks · books expected 62.4%
NFL
58.3% won
60 picks · books expected 66.2%
NBA
75.0% won
24 picks · books expected 70.8%
MLB
71.4% won
14 picks · books expected 59.0%
WNBA
50.0% won
8 picks · books expected 63.3%
| Sport | Picks | Win % | Books expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF | 232 | 69.0% | 74.0% |
| NHL | 80 | 67.5% | 62.4% |
| NFL | 60 | 58.3% | 66.2% |
| NBA | 24 | 75.0% | 70.8% |
| MLB | 14 | 71.4% | 59.0% |
| WNBA | 8 | 50.0% | 63.3% |
With the book favorite: 418 picks, 67.2% won. Against the favorite: 0 picks. "Books expected" is how often the books' odds said these picks would win, with the bookmaker's margin taken out. To come out level betting at the prices we recorded, the picks needed to win 70.7% (break-even, margin included). Updated 2026-10-26 09:48 UTC.
Picks graded
1,198
Win rate
61.2%
Books expected
62.0%
MLB
57.0% won
588 picks · books expected 57.3%
NCAAF
63.8% won
307 picks · books expected 68.0%
WNBA
69.0% won
113 picks · books expected 65.7%
NFL
60.5% won
86 picks · books expected 65.4%
NHL
67.5% won
80 picks · books expected 62.4%
NBA
75.0% won
24 picks · books expected 70.8%
| Sport | Picks | Win % | Books expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 588 | 57.0% | 57.3% |
| NCAAF | 307 | 63.8% | 68.0% |
| WNBA | 113 | 69.0% | 65.7% |
| NFL | 86 | 60.5% | 65.4% |
| NHL | 80 | 67.5% | 62.4% |
| NBA | 24 | 75.0% | 70.8% |
With the book favorite: 1137 picks, 62.1% won. Against the favorite: 61 picks, 44.3% won. "Books expected" is how often the books' odds said these picks would win, with the bookmaker's margin taken out. To come out level betting at the prices we recorded, the picks needed to win 63.1% (break-even, margin included). Updated 2026-10-26 09:55 UTC.
The last 20 graded picks
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
2026-10-25 · NFL · — FanDuel
Houston Texans
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
2026-10-25 · NFL · — FanDuel
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
2026-10-25 · NFL · — FanDuel
Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
2026-10-25 · NFL · — DraftKings
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
2026-10-25 · NFL · — DraftKings
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild @ Vancouver Canucks
2026-10-26 · NHL · -170 DraftKings
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings
2026-10-26 · NBA · -162 DraftKings
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators
2026-10-26 · NHL · -218 DraftKings
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks
2026-10-25 · NBA · -310 DraftKings
Oklahoma City Thunder
Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
2026-10-25 · NBA · -950 DraftKings
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets
2026-10-25 · NBA · -250 BetRivers
Dallas Stars
New York Islanders @ Dallas Stars
2026-10-25 · NHL · -190 BetOnline
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
2026-10-25 · NFL · — DraftKings
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz
2026-10-25 · NBA · -245 Bovada
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
2026-10-25 · NFL · — DraftKings
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers @ Chicago Blackhawks
2026-10-25 · NHL · -175 LowVig
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
2026-10-25 · NFL · — FanDuel
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
2026-10-25 · NFL · — FanDuel
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
2026-10-25 · NFL · — Bovada
Texas Longhorns
Ole Miss Rebels @ Texas Longhorns
2026-10-24 · NCAAF · — MyBookie
| Date | Sport | Pick | Game | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals | — FanDuel | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | Houston Texans | New York Giants @ Houston Texans | — FanDuel | LOSS |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | New York Jets | Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets | — FanDuel | LOSS |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | Minnesota Vikings | Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings | — DraftKings | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens | — DraftKings | LOSS |
| 2026-10-26 | NHL | Minnesota Wild | Minnesota Wild @ Vancouver Canucks | -170 DraftKings | WIN |
| 2026-10-26 | NBA | Memphis Grizzlies | Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings | -162 DraftKings | WIN |
| 2026-10-26 | NHL | Colorado Avalanche | Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators | -218 DraftKings | LOSS |
| 2026-10-25 | NBA | New York Knicks | Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks | -310 DraftKings | LOSS |
| 2026-10-25 | NBA | Oklahoma City Thunder | Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder | -950 DraftKings | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NBA | Indiana Pacers | Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets | -250 BetRivers | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NHL | Dallas Stars | New York Islanders @ Dallas Stars | -190 BetOnline | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders | — DraftKings | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NBA | Los Angeles Lakers | Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz | -245 Bovada | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | — DraftKings | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NHL | Florida Panthers | Florida Panthers @ Chicago Blackhawks | -175 LowVig | WIN |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons | — FanDuel | LOSS |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers | — FanDuel | LOSS |
| 2026-10-25 | NFL | Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints | — Bovada | WIN |
| 2026-10-24 | NCAAF | Texas Longhorns | Ole Miss Rebels @ Texas Longhorns | — MyBookie | WIN |
Price is the best price we recorded at lock-in and the book that offered it. Upcoming picks are for members.
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How we track accuracy
- ✓ Every pick is locked in before the game starts and cannot be changed afterwards
- ✓ Graded against the moneyline / totals result from The Odds API
- ✓ Every sport in the feed counts. Soccer was paused on 2026-09-14 and is excluded from this record; the change log below says why.
- ✓ Historical results retained and searchable inside the dashboard
Changes to the method, dated
- 2026-09-11 — Picks against the book favourite stopped: they had won 47.9% against 60.6% for picks with the favourite. Model probabilities are now shrunk toward the market line in MLS, EPL, NCAAF and NFL.
- 2026-09-14 — Closing-line value is not shown yet: our lock-in price is the best available price, while the closing line we record is the median across books, and comparing the two flatters us. It will appear once both are recorded the same way, for picks from this date on.
- 2026-09-14 — This page: one pick per game (when two books list the same game separately, the first lock-in counts), soccer draws counted as losses, and the price we recorded at lock-in shown next to every pick.
- 2026-09-14 — Soccer (MLS and EPL) paused and removed from this record. Over the last 30 days those picks went 41-64 (39.0%) against a 60.0% break-even, with every draw counted as a loss. The model is not good enough to publish. The picks stay in the database and come back only if a rebuilt model earns it.