MLS Picks · August 23, 2026

Our model's picks for today's MLS slate. Career accuracy on MLS: 62.0% on 129 graded games .

8:30 PM UTC

New York City Fc @ New England Revolution

Our pick

New England Revolution

Model probability

57.4%

Edge vs market

+0.1%

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11:00 PM UTC

Sporting Kansas City @ Atlanta United Fc

Our pick

Atlanta United Fc

Model probability

63.2%

Edge vs market

-10.0%

Confidence tier and full driver breakdown Sign in to see →

How our MLS model works

Every game gets 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations combining ELO ratings, team season stats, recent form, and matchup-specific features (starting pitcher for MLB, injury reports across all sports). Output probabilities are Platt-calibrated against the most recent 60 days of graded outcomes. Nothing is manual — the same code that produces today's picks below is what produces tomorrow's.

Full public track record: /accuracy · Free 7-day trial (no card required): /pricing