EPL Picks · August 23, 2026

Our model's picks for today's EPL slate. Career accuracy on EPL: 63.0% on 27 graded games .

1:00 PM UTC

Bournemouth @ Manchester City

Our pick

Manchester City

Model probability

67.4%

Edge vs market

-14.1%

Confidence tier and full driver breakdown Sign in to see →

1:00 PM UTC

Aston Villa @ Brighton And Hove Albion

Our pick

Brighton And Hove Albion

Model probability

55.0%

Edge vs market

-4.8%

Confidence tier and full driver breakdown Sign in to see →

3:30 PM UTC

Liverpool @ Newcastle United

Our pick

Newcastle United

Model probability

54.5%

Edge vs market

+20.8%

Confidence tier and full driver breakdown Sign in to see →

How our EPL model works

Every game gets 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations combining ELO ratings, team season stats, recent form, and matchup-specific features (starting pitcher for MLB, injury reports across all sports). Output probabilities are Platt-calibrated against the most recent 60 days of graded outcomes. Nothing is manual — the same code that produces today's picks below is what produces tomorrow's.

Full public track record: /accuracy · Free 7-day trial (no card required): /pricing